Notwithstanding concerns about lofty valuations, smallcaps recorded their most significant monthly gain in nearly three years in November. The National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 100 finished the month with a 12 per cent gain, the most since February 2021 when it rose by 12.2 per cent. After declining by 4.1 per cent in the preceding month, the Nifty Midcap 100 rose by 10.4 per cent, the most since July 2022.
Foreign investors pumped in Rs 11,119 crore in the Indian equities in December, making it the second consecutive monthly inflow, despite increasing concerns over the re-emergence of Covid-19 cases in some parts of the world. However, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned cautious in recent days. The inflow in December was much lower compared to Rs 36,239 crore invested by FPIs in the month of November, data with the depositories showed.
Foreign Portfolio Investors' (FPIs) selling spree continues as they pulled out over Rs 3,400 crore from the Indian equity markets in the first three trading sessions of November on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period.
'The deal pipeline across products is robust for 2024.'
Mutual funds' equity buying remained elevated for the fifth consecutive month in December, taking the net equity purchase past Rs 1.7 trillion in 2023. The aggressive buying in December indicates that flows into equity funds are likely to have remained unaffected by the sharp run-up in the market last month. Mutual funds (MFs) bought equities worth Rs 23,000 crore last month (until December 28) compared to Rs 18,000 crore in November, shows data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi).
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends and macroeconomic data announcements in a holiday-shortened week which may see volatility amid monthly derivatives expiry, say analysts. Equity markets will remain closed on Monday for Gurunanak Jayanti. Trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of the rupee against the dollar will also be tracked by investors.
The uncertainty over the gravity of the pandemic's impact on the global economy and financial markets worldwide triggered a flight to safety among foreign investors as they rushed to exit from relatively riskier investment destinations, such as emerging markets like India, a report said.
Overall market benchmark Sensex is headed for its worst performance in four years with a decline of 1,650 points
IT, FMCG and manufacturing sectors are less attractive to foreign portfolio investors
Following the sharp run in markets, valuations across the board have become elevated. The National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index now trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24.3 times, 18 per cent higher than this year's low of 20.5 times. The valuation expansion in the broader markets has been sharper.
After three consecutive years of infusing huge funds, foreign portfolio investors retreated from the Indian equity markets in a big way in 2022 with the highest-ever yearly net outflow of nearly Rs 1.21 lakh crore. The huge outflow, which surpasses by a big margin the previous record of Rs 53,000 crore net withdrawal in 2008, came amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally but 2023 is expected to be better on positivity about overall macroeconomic trends in India, experts said. Apart from global monetary tightening, volatile crude, rising commodity prices along with Russia and Ukraine conflict led to an exodus of foreign money in 2022.
After withdrawing record funds in 2021-22, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their sell-off in the last fiscal too and pulled out Rs 37,631 crore from Indian equities amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally. The outflow trend is likely to reverse in the current financial year since India has the best growth potential in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said. Market analysts believe that FPI flows in the current financial year would be decided by a host of factors, such as the US Federal Reserve's policy stance, oil prices movement and development in the geopolitical situation.
Initial public offerings (IPOs) have attracted droves of retail investors to the stock market in CY22. But these applicants have lost money on 40 per cent of the fresh issues this year - a trend that may impact sentiment towards maiden share sales during the remaining part of the year. Of the 14 companies that have listed this year, five have closed below their issue price.
Benchmark BSE Sensex rallied nearly 630 points while Nifty closed above the 16,500 mark on Wednesday after sharp gains in IT and energy shares amid positive global market trends. Buying in index majors Reliance Industries, Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services and FII inflows bolstered the sentiment. Shares of firms related to oil exploration and refineries were in heavy demand, with Reliance Industries rallying 2.47 per cent and ONGC by 4 per cent, as the government slashed windfall tax on petrol, diesel, jet fuel and crude oil.
Assume that the rupee will trend lower over the next 10 years as India increases overseas sovereign exposures, and your long-term asset allocation should be geared to deal with this trend, suggests Devangshu Datta
Foreign Portfolio Investors purchased stocks worth about Rs 56,123 crore in 2016-17
'The potential headwind is that the Indian economy is likely to see a slowdown in growth rates over the next two years.'
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty closed with losses in highly volatile trade on Thursday as banking and financial stocks retreated amid a weak trend in global equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 89.14 points or 0.15 per cent to settle at 57,595.68. During the day, it touched a low of 57,138.51 and a high of 57,827.99. The broader NSE Nifty dipped 22.90 points or 0.13 per cent to settle at 17,222.75.
The rupee closed at Rs 66.21 in its last trading session.
'Large-caps are better placed to withstand the impact of higher input cost inflation, rising rates and withdrawal of excess global liquidity.'
The Rs 38-trillion mutual fund (MF) industry is going through a new fund offer (NFO) rush. Since July 1, the industry has launched close to 70 NFOs. This follows the completion of a near three-month embargo period when the industry had vowed to not launch any new offerings till the time it implemented norms around pooling of investor accounts. As a result, between April and June 2022, the industry was able to launch just three NFOs.
'Today, there is no easy money to be made after the run-up in equities.'
Equity markets will look for directions from global trends, ongoing quarterly earnings and investment patterns of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in a holiday-shortened week ahead and may encounter volatility amid the scheduled monthly derivatives expiry, according to analysts. Equity markets will remain closed on Wednesday on account of 'Republic Day'. "This week is a holiday-shortened one and it's going to be critical due to the list of events and data that are lined up.
Over 25 per cent of the net flows have been directed toward the large-cap category as investors preferred to put money in the top 100 stocks by market capitalisation because the segment has been the most resilient over the past year.
Focus will, however, shift back to corporate earnings, liquidity situation and global events - specially crude price.
Since October, FPIs have sold over $26 billion worth of stocks, which is the largest selling ever seen in India, observes Akash Prakash.
While the amount collected is a tad lower than last two years, it may surpass the previous two years' collections by the end of the year.
Foreign investors, according to them, will now wait-and-watch how the economy takes shape in the backdrop of doubts over monsoon, interest rate trajectory and other global events such as the US - China trade war.
A key trigger for the increased retail participation in equities has been the lockdown triggered by Covid-19 that saw investors channelising their savings to capital markets in search of better return on their investments and the need to increase their disposable income.
Record equity divestment by the Reliance Group in its telecom and retail businesses garnering around $23 billion revved up the deal street in 2020, which otherwise would have gone down as one of the dullest on record, and dealmakers are seeing sunnier days in 2021 given the large scope for consolidation in a slew of sectors ravaged by the pandemic. With Jio Platforms alone garnering over $16 billion (Rs 1,18,318 crore) by selling 25.24 per cent stake and Reliance Retail notching up $6.4 billion (Rs 47,265 crore) by divesting around 9 per cent shareholding, the deal street signed off with $85 billion in the deal kitty across 1,270 transactions. This is higher by about 10 per cent over 2019. What is significant is that over a third of the total deal value came from Reliance transactions, say investment bankers.
Today, it holds $131 billion in assets under management.
'The Indian economy is in slowdown and growth may stay slow,' notes Devangshu Datta.
Equity markets braved all odds this fiscal and rewarded investors with high returns as the benchmark Sensex surged more than 66 per cent despite COVID-led disruptions and concerns over its impact on the economy. Market analysts termed FY 2020-21 as a roller coaster ride for not only Indian markets but also for equity indices globally due to the pandemic. In an unprecedented come back, the 30-share BSE Sensex has jumped 19,540.01 points or 66.30 per cent so far this fiscal. This extraordinary rally holds significance as markets faced volatile trends this fiscal.
A first in 7 years, the combined institutional investor flow stands at Rs 69,000 crore in 2016-17
Due to tax associations with the fiscal-ending, April is a month of SIP renewal. So, the April numbers will be important and may perhaps, mark a change in retail attitude.
It does feel like we are close to the end of the rupee's rally, says Jamal Mecklai.
Small stocks made a dashing comeback in 2020 after delivering negative returns in the last two years as increased retail investor participation in pandemic times saw small-cap index surging up to 31 per cent and outperforming the bigger benchmark gauge. This year turned out to be eventful for the equity market, witnessing bearish and bullish sentiments at different points of time. While the initial part of COVID-ravaged 2020 saw the bears in full force amid concerns related to the pandemic and lockdowns hurting economic activities, bulls made a comeback towards the latter half of the year. As the market swayed with many lows as well as highs, small and mid-cap indices emerged as markets favourites in 2020.
'As the growth momentum reverses benefiting from re-monetisation, it will be accompanied by a rise in inflation.'
Stock markets in structural bull run but there can be bouts of volatility says Ravi Gopalakrishnan, head, equities, Canara Robeco Mutual Fund
